LIV Miami Mega-Preview
stats, rankings, data, scuttlebutt, Champions League breakdown and more
The Standings
The back to back wins in Jeddah and Hong Kong for the Crushers have them leading the table through 4 events. The battle at the top for the remaining byes is much tighter with Torque and Smash a bit ahead of the struggling Legion XIII, who have just a handful of points since opening with a win in Malaysia. Seeing the Crushers roll into gear is like when the Pats got going in the Moss days, just feel unstoppable right now.
The mid-table scrap sees Stinger ahead of the disappointing and possibly over the hill 4 Aces with Ripper right behind. The Range Goats, Fireballs, Majesticks and Cleeks have eyes set on climbing the table with the Hy Flyers and Iron Heads are tied for 12th and probably just trying to avoid missing out on the team championship completely (13th doesn’t even make it). The Fireballs talent should not have them rubbing shoulders with the Majesticks and Cleeks, Sergio has to know that.
Joaquin Niemann (Torque) holds onto a 40 point lead atop the standings over the big name addition Rahm. Dustin Johnson is right on Rahm’s heels holding onto a podium spot with semi-surprise packages Casey and Ancer in 4th and 5th. Reigning champion Gooch has quietly piled up the points for 6th place with stars Bryson DeChambeau and Cam Smith right behind him. Rounding out the top 10 are Louis Oosthuizen and Charles Howell III. It’s basically absolute killers only in the top 10, with only really Hatton (19th) and Brooks (15th) missing out for now, but expect them to climb into it soon. Patrick Reed’s killer status is under review for now and Adrian Meronk hasn’t quite gotten it yet but if he can continue to drag the Cleeks into the points, expect Meronk to both get killer status and a possible captaincy (more on that later).
Miami Breakdown
The teams are sorted from favorites (Crushers) to longest of shots (Ironheads). The players are sorted by datagolf index with the size of their logo representing bookies odds for this week.
The Favorites
Coming off back to back wins the Crushers are given a 21% chance of making it 3 straight and putting a stranglehold on the 1st place spot this week. The odds love them a bit more than the datagolf rankings which see Torque as the best team, but datagolf can’t fully capture the team chemistry and vibe that Bryson has going (see altimeter talk later). Captain DeChambeau leads the team but isn’t a truly elite leading player like Legion XIII and Torque have, the strength of the Crushers comes in depth. #2 Charles Howell III and #3 Paul Casey are both around .5 strokes gained per round, which is about 75th percentile for LIV golfers, no other teams #3 golfer is at this threshold. Torque (Mito Pereira at .29) and Smash (Kokrak at .33) are the closest.
Paul Casey’s turnaround over his past 5 events has been sudden and sees him right in the mix inside the top 10
Podium Contenders
Torque at 15% to win have the league leader Joaquin Niemann leading the way for the Latin heavy side that arguably have the best team chemistry on the tour (see them in team gear celebrating Carlos Ortiz’s win in Oman). The depth here is also great, Sebastian Munoz is the best #4 of any team in the league, he’s positive strokes gained at .1 per round. Lahiri of the Crushers is close for best #4 (-.1) and so is Matt Jones of Ripper (-.13) but the combination of a very high floor with the second best player in the league has Torque the 2nd best looking team heading into Doral with reason to suspect they can knock off the Crushers and have their eyes on the big prize.
The two teams tied for 3rd feature very different rosters: Smash and Legion XIII both have 13% odds to win it all this week. Rahm has yet to win on LIV but remains the overall betting favorite and best player on the circuit while Tyrrell Hatton remains largely underrated as a legit stick, the addition of Hatton gives them an unmatched deadly duo. Hatton is among the top 5 golfers in the league and his strokes gained of +1.3 is almost .4 strokes better than anyone else’s #2 (Gooch of Smash). However, Kieran Vincent is one of the worst players in the league and while Caleb Surratt has a bright future, he is still a below average player on LIV, he’d be a fine #4 but with the Zimbabwean anchor of Kieran Vincent weighing them down it puts more pressure on the dominant duo up top.
Talk about great timing to play your best golf. Vincent qualified for LIV with one of his only positive strokes gained performances of the past year. He has already earned over $500,000 on LIV, and is on pace for an easy $2-3 million while playing terribly. The top earner on the Asian Tour usually clocks in around $600k.
Smash are a more professional and even side, they also have a strong duo but Koepka and Gooch are more like top 10 players than true big time favorites right now. Kokrak is an above average player at the 3 slot and then you have basically 25th percentile player McDowell at 4. Smash Message Board posters are still puzzling on just what Captain Koepka saw in Graeme to sign him this offseason.
The Mid Table
The inaugural champs and global brand the 4 Aces have slumped to mid table this year in the standings and the expectations for this week cannot be anything but that. All of the players have slid back slightly from their soaring heights of 2022: Dustin Johnson has been passed as the true stick by Niemann and Rahm and Reed looks a lot more like a Paul Casey or Lucas Herbert than a Bryson or Cam Smith. Pat Perez is only better than a handful of other players in the league while Varner is the definition of league average. 8% to win this week. The new managing director has to come in and start throwing trash cans around to wake up the lethargic “Aces”.
The Fireballs have an interesting roster construction right now with 3 solid players just a bit below the 75th percentile in Sergio Garcia, David Puig and Abraham Ancer all around .4 strokes gained per round. The youngster Eugenio Chacarra is nearly a stroke worse than his teammates. The floor is so high but the roof remains low. The Fireballs have been in the points every single week but are yet to sniff a podium and are 10th overall in the standings.
The two feverishly nationalistic squads come up next in Stinger and Ripper. The South Africans have a couple of guys rolling right now in Louis Oosthuizen and Dean Burmester. Both are around the top 10 in terms of how they are playing right now but Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel are not guys you can totally count on right now. Schwartzel has accumulated some points so far this year, but is a -.5 strokes gained type player. 7% to win.
Cam Smith has not delivered as a true star level player on LIV, he’s in the Burmester/Oosthuizen/Gooch/Koepka range right now and Ripper needs him to be better. Herbert, Leishman and Matt Jones have been scattered from a bit above average to a bit below but without a megastar taking the top off defenses Ripper will lack title winning chances. 6% to win. Getting some points on the board before heading home to Adelaide in 3 weeks could be enormous. No home field advantage in sports like Ripper in Adelaide. Maybe the Yellow Wall in Dortmund and the altitude for Bolivian national team/Denver Nuggets, but come on. Ripper strike fear even into the fiery hearts of Torque and battle-hardened hearts of the Crushers when they are Down Under.
Sadly Stinger haven’t been able to play in front of their tens of thousands in Johannesberg, possible bias in the league office for Ripper?
Mediocrity
The Green Grazers have to be just sick with where they are here. The Range Goats have an identity and aura and passionate fan base that any team in any sport would kill for. To fade into the nothingness of this mediocre tier has to have the Goats goat up. Peter Uihlein is their best player and he’s not even an average LIV player right now with a strokes gained right at about 0. The trade for Matt Wolff has not paid off as he is just barely ahead of Thomas Pieters at -.5 strokes gained. Captain Bubba Watson hasn’t totally lost his game but it hasn’t translated into points, he has just 3.7 points in the individual standings. Very little high end talent here but this is a course that could play to the bomb and gouging type team Bubba has built in his own image (of course not before God). 3% to win.
The Cleeks sent Cleek Nation into hysterics in Hong Kong with a charge through the first two days (#cleekup and #wearethecleeksthemightymightycleeks were both trending globally after Kalle Samooja and Martin Kaymer poured in birdies) before fading a bit late to 5th but securing some needed points. The Cleeks have actually grabbed points twice but the question has to be asked: is it time for a captain change? Martin Kaymer is probably the 2nd worst player on a roster in the league and remains captain. Blandy (+.3) and Meronk (+.7) are solid pieces but other newbie Kalle Samooja is one of the worst #3s in the league. You just can’t put up big wins with those 2 dragging you down at the bottom. 2%.
It’s gotten ugly for Kaymer…he is actually coming off first positive outing in a long time.
Phil Mickelson’s inability to put together a competitive roster will be a black mark on his otherwise totally clean career and personal resume. Part of that is due to his own play, he’s the worst player on the non-competitive HyFlyers. But he’s also unable to grab any difference makers to fill out his roster: Tringale and Steele are about average players and Ogletree played his way back onto LIV but has yet to score an individual point on his return. 2%
The Majesticks have similar problems to the Goats and HyFlyers with a fading captain (Westwood) and no higher end talent. 2% and just a mess of a roster.
The Dregs..Relegation?
The team who finishes 13th should be disbanded for the next season. There is no question who would be the heavy favorite for this team relegation, the putrid and disgusting Iron Heads. Danny Lee once won an event on this tour and was actually just an average player through the middle of last season but has just cratered since.
He has missed the cut on his past 3 non LIV events and doesn’t have a LIV point.
Possibly related
Jinichiro Kozuma is also goose egging the season so far and Scott Vincent has just .57. Captain Kevin Na has a negative strokes gained and is by far the class of this team. Break up the Iron Heads!
0.5% chance to win.
The Course
Trump National Doral is home to the Blue Monster, a 7600 yard course that rewards length of the tee.
Longest Teams
Range Goats +9.6 yards (but least accurate by far at -5.5% vs average)
Legion XIII +9.2 yards
Torque +6.9 yards (with solid accuracy +2.6%)
Crushers +5.5 yards
Shortest Teams
Majesticks -6.1 yards
Ironheads -6 yards
Cleeks -4.4 yards
Bubba Watson is a player with fantastic history here. A couple other players with solid history are Dustin Johnson and Louis Oosthuizen.
Storylines to watch
-Crushers keep rolling? Bryson has found his lane as a great captain and has his veterans humming now. A 3rd win in a row would be an epic accomplishment, Bryson will have to handle a lot of scoring responsibility here compared to Hong Kong as his length becomes a big strength now after being neutralized a bit.
-Can Niemann dethrone Rahm? Another win and I think he could become the top player to watch on the tour.
-What midtable team can emerge? The 4 Aces lack energy but have the pedigree. Fireballs might lack a ceiling, while the South Africans and the Aussies have just looked a bit lacking in cutting edge. I like the Fireballs to step it up and contend for a podium here with Chacarra and Puig stretching their legs on the Monster.
-If the Goats can’t at least contend for a podium here, there will be mass discontent among the fanbase. This is the perfect course to Graze.
-Give me something Kieran. Kieran Vincent right now is dragging down Legion XIII in a big way, without improvement from him the team with 2 of the best players in the league might wind up behind the Crushers and Torque and have to fight for that critical bye with Smash and whatever of the midtable mass climb toward contention.
Through the Grapevine (unsubstantiated rumors floating around the LIV Space)
Bryson reportedly has sponsored team altimeters for the Crushers (with logo of course) and sent each guy a powerpoint with how to best use it off the tee……..Bubba was disappointed Thomas Pieters did not wear all pink to their children’s event in Hong Kong……Kevin Na is apparently apoplectic with the Ironheads scouting bureau, he was given a mislabeled report on Keita Nakajima (DPT World Tour winner) and signed Jinichiro Kozuma on this faulty report. The scout has been demoted….We heard that Brooks Koepka hasn’t even talked to Graeme McDowell since he signed with Smash…..Tyrell Hatton supposedly texted Scott Vincent on Telegram to switch places with Kieran in Las Vegas hoping no one would notice, he was disgusted with how Kieran was hitting it off the tee in training……Mickelson apparently forced Brendan Steele to play for $12k a hole in a putting contest that lasted 6 hours at his house…….Branden Grace apparently just scrolls instagram during Louis’s detailed pregame reports/pep talks. Louis spends hours honing them and gets really worked up, he might lose it and scream at Grace if he does it again…..The 4 Aces have a contest the night before the competition where they try to get as close as possible to the legal limit on BAC before racing back from the bar to Aces HQ…….The Cleeks apparently almost came to blows in a discussion that centered around the response to the Nazi invasion of Poland in 1939. Samooja kept insisting the Finnish resistance should be recognized globally and thanked for stopping Stalin…..Caleb Surratt was told by his mom to keep to himself and not let bad influences corrupt him.
Champions League Update
A hypothetical (hopefully becoming reality soon) season ending competition between all major golf leagues.
~50 golfers, 4 weeks of head to head competition between the tours to cap the season. Match play to start and stroke to finish with a team aspect included as we go from Jeddah to Sawgrass to Pebble Beach.
First the 18 autospots to the Signature Golfers
Then the 4 Mule Spots (already qualified don’t count here)
And the aforementioned top 10 from LIV are automatically in.
with these guys just outside
The top golfer from the KFT (Mason Anderson) and the International Series (Carlos Ortiz) get in, plus the top two from the DPWT (Rory McIlroy and Rikuya Hoshino).
Depending on how well a league plays in the Champions League, they can earn more spots for the next season.
Can’t wait to crank up LIV+ and just let the quality golf wash over me with the soothing tones of Jerry Foltz, Arlo White and David Feherty take me to my happy place.
#cleekup
#wearethecleeksthemightymightycleeks